Is the future EV only? Maybe not, according to Toyota.
Toyota has been accused of being slow to develop EVs, and some have accused the brand of being anti-EV. But, although it has been putting more energy and development dollars, it has been adamant that going “EV only” is a fool’s errand. Toyota’s Chief Scientist, Gill Pratt, said so at World Economic Forum at Davos. In short, Toyota thinks that the way forward to decarbonizing transportation will be multi-faceted. Lithium is in relatively short supply.
The study uses the sample of a fleet of 100 ICE vehicles, averaging 250 grams of carbon dioxide per single kilometer traveled. One EV with a battery the size of 100 kWh could only replace 1 of the 100 cars, which would only bring the average down to 248 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer. By contrast, 90 hybrids with an average battery size of 1.1 kWh and 10 conventional ICE vehicles would bring down the average CO2 per kilometer to 205 grams.
In essence, Toyota’s scientists think that the demand for lithium, the material found in big EV batteries, can’t match the demand. So, the limited amount of lithium we do have should be spread among more vehicles that are electrified, like hybrids. Pratt and Toyota think that a lot of hybrids would make more of a carbon emission impact compared to a small fleet of EVs.
According to reporting from Automotive News, Gill Pratt is pretty candid with what he thinks are realistic goals for carbon emission reduction and shifts to EVs. Opening a battery plant is somewhat quick, but Pratt says that digging a new lithium mine could take up to 16 years. Until we can get more refining and processing plants online, there likely will be a materials crunch where automakers may not be able to get enough lithium to satisfy demand.
Still, Toyota is investing in EVs, it plans to sell 3.3 million EVs by 2030, with 1 million of those being Lexus vehicles. But, it also expects to sell 5.5 million plug-in and regular hybrid vehicles, too.
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